And so far, you know, Russian aircraft, and there were about a thousand of them, have mostly been firing from Russian territory and over the Black Sea. Regime change has long seemed only a distant prospect, but perhaps no longer. "Digging a hole is not fun," said Stefan Korshak, an American who knows the Ukrainian military well. Information warfare should be reinforced by continued sanctions, whose aim is not so much to win the war as to cripple Russian war-making potential for the long run by depressing the economy and forcing Russia to make do with inferior components and spare parts. The commander of Ukraines ground forces, Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, twice visited soldiers in Bakhmut and said that Russia was putting its most prepared units into the fight. The activist Roman Protasevich, center, at a news briefing organized by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Minsk, Belarus, in 2021. But the operation also came at significant cost to Ukraines forces, which expended huge amounts of precious ammunition and deployed some of their most capable units to reinforce faltering defenses as the Russians pushed forward. Will Logistics Be Russia's Undoing in Ukraine? This article was adapted from a speech given to the Polish Institute of International Affairss Strategic Ark conference on May 17, 2023. And right now they're saying, let's try to liberate a little more of our land with this counteroffensive and then reassess after that. "Here are some helpful stories to make sense of it all. The presidential adviser said attacks on Ukraine's civilian population constitute war crimes. Analysis Revisiting U.S. Grand Strategy After Ukraine Six months into Russia's war, seven thinkers outline its impact on foreign policy. Ukrainian soldiers firing artillery rounds toward a Russian infantry position near Bakhmut in March. Russian forces would be forced to defend the front as opposed to securing polling sites. At that time, however, few expected the city, which was also the site of fierce fighting in 2014, to become the longest-running sustained battle of the war. There was also a nearly 100-year-old house of culture: a grandiose concert hall with an entryway lined with Corinthian columns. Specifically in the southern Kherson and eastern Kharkiv regions, Podolyak said Russia destroys "residential areas every day with artillery, in the same way.". This combination has freed up the countrys warplanes, special operations teams and long-range precision missiles to hunt Russian radars, command posts and supply depots. Sources: Institute for the Study of War with the American Enterprise Institutes Critical Threats Project (control areas) and OpenStreetMap (city boundary and base map). Please enable JavaScript for a better experience. But Ukraine's air defenses have been so effective that Russian pilots often fire their weapons while over Russia and never enter Ukrainian airspace. I quietly stood next to him. So today, Mykhailo Podolyak, who is an adviser to the head of President Zelenskyy's office, he said, you know, don't expect this big announcement at a specific time with a ribbon cutting to say, hey, the counteroffensive is here because he said, like, attacking Russian positions, ammunition stockpiles and infrastructure like rail lines or oil depots - he sees these as counteroffensive actions. And, you know, we heard roughly the same thing from special forces fighters and reconnaissance soldiers we met recently in the southern city of Kherson. The previously outgunned Ukrainians now have huge howitzers recently delivered by the U.S., which has helped level the field to some extent. Ukraine knows how it defines victory: the pre-2014 borders cleansed of the invader, its exiles and refugees returned, its society and economy rebuilt, membership in the European Union and NATO attained, and some measure of justice for Russian rapists, torturers, and murderers secured. We became convinced that fighting was both futile and painful, that our enemies were implacable and unbeatable, and that the price paid in blood, treasure, and attention was in no way worth the cost and never would be. Withdrawing forces from an active front is no simple task, and could leave Russia vulnerable to attacks from Ukrainian troops on high ground on the citys outskirts. Energoatom said last week that Moscow had increased the number troops stationed at the plant to more than 2,500 which is more than the number of workers. Seems all the vultures are here, one soldier messaged me as throngs of journalists showed up when the city seemed on the brink of falling in March. Ukraines military intelligence agency identified the attackers as opposition-minded citizens of Russia. Andrii Yusov, a spokesman for the agency, told Ukrainian news outlets that Russian partisans were working to create a security zone intended to protect Ukrainian civilians near the border. Among the injured, 16 people were taken to hospitals and the others are receivingoutpatient treatment,Lukashuk said in a Telegram post. Hold Bakhmut became a rallying cry for Ukrainians, even as bombings reduced most of the city to rubble and nearly all of its 70,000 prewar residents fled. Putin may view any acquiescing to anti-war sentiments, thereby showing even a hint of weakness, to be as much of a threat to his survival as continuing the war. They have spent weeks secretly crossing the Dnipro River into Russian-occupied territory to sabotage Russia's grip in the area and to lay the groundwork for larger military action. Kyiv says it's steadfast in pushing Russia out of the country altogether. At one point, U.S. officials warned Ukraine that it was using resources in Bakhmut that would be better saved for a broader counteroffensive that Western allies see as Kyivs best chance to retake ground lost to Russia. Shelling briefly knocks out power at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. Russian forces will likely need additional reinforcements to hold Bakhmut city and its flanks at the expense of operations in other directions, the Institute for the Study of War wrote in its latest analysis on Sunday. Today, its a ruin. Even if Russia does have full control of Bakhmut, military analysts say the Ukrainian resistance tied up Moscows forces for months, killing or wounding thousands, and posing a significant obstacle to President Vladimir V. Putins goal of conquering all of the eastern Donbas region. Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the Wagner groups founder, said: The pincers are closing.. Strategy is the matching of means to ends. In early March, the Russian Volunteer Corps claimed that it had staged a brief incursion into villages in Bryansk, another Russian region on Ukraines border. Russia, meanwhile, poses an acute threat in cyberspace, the summary says, evidenced by its malign influence efforts against the United States and repeated cyber attacks against Ukrainian civilian critical infrastructure.. This allowed the Ukrainian officials to quietly listen in on the calls the Russians made on those stolen phones. Kyiv says. Ukraine says its preparations for a spring counter-offensive are almost complete. A one-story business nearby also caught fire, but firefighters extinguished the blaze, the official said. Reports of cross-border shelling from Ukraine on Monday morning gave way to fighting in the afternoon in several locations between the border and Grayvoron, a local administrative center about six miles from Kozinka, according to accounts published on Telegram. Even President Volodymyr Zelensky, in a rare public rumination over strategy, acknowledged the high costs in lives of trying to hold ground against the brunt of Russia's army in the mostly . His statements included praise for Mr. Lukashenko and an admission about seeking to topple him. Ukrainian forces have been defending Bakhmut for more than 10 months, but the Kremlin says its forces, along with private mercenaries - they've now captured all of it. Breaking the Russian army, as we have, by spending only a small fraction of our defense budget and none of our blood is an astounding strategic bargain. That's a huge challenge for the United States and like-minded democratic partners. The deposed Mariupol City Council said in a post on Telegram that there were strikes at the steel plant Azovstal that is now under Russian control. Residents, fellow soldiers and friends knelt and bowed their heads in honor of the 29-year-old Ukrainian service member who died on May 17 in Bakhmut. Although Washington cannot alone determine the war's duration, it can take steps to make an eventual negotiated peace more likely. Ukraine must not only achieve battlefield success in its upcoming counteroffensives; it must secure more than orderly Russian withdrawals following cease-fire negotiations. Absolutely sick creatures.". Another showed a soldier and an armored vehicle bearing Ukrainian markings at an intersection about three miles into Russian territory. Matthew Mpoke Bigg and Ivan Nechepurenko. Even if Mr. Prigozhin does not pull his fighters out now, military analysts noted that Russia will face challenges controlling Bakhmut, especially with Ukrainian forces preparing a counteroffensive that could escalate fighting along other parts of the 600-mile-long front line. So President Zelenskyy sees that, too. As American troops helped train the Ukrainians, he was immediately struck by their tech savvy when the U.S. provided radar equipment that detected incoming Russian artillery fire. A conflict erupted in Donbas starting in 2014, as separatists backed by Russian forces seized control of regional capitals and other towns, establishing breakaway republics. They also gave an update on F-16 warplanes in Ukraine. The loss of power, even for a few hours, increased risk at the plant, which is occupied by Russian troops and operated by Ukrainian engineers. Russian leaders became convinced in the late 1970s and early 80s that they could not keep up with advances in Western military technology, even as they fought and lost the war in Afghanistan. You say 'an army marches on its stomach,' and somebody responded with a tweet saying, 'what an army now seems to march on is its mobile networks,'" said Mc Daid. Oleksandr Shargorodskyi wound through the village streets of Trebukhiv, Ukraine, on Sunday. 14, which was partially destroyed,Lukashuk said. This allows them to better coordinate their attacks on the Russians. Today, as the fighting continues, casualties mount, and the humanitarian crisis worsens, it's unclear what will happen next. Because if that's a long time and the West sees no progress, what happens? She called on pet owners who Malyshko has helped in the past to now support him. Moscow has now ordered a mobilization which could unlock a lot of resources for them in a way its shadow/ad-hoc efforts cannot. The offensive potential of the enemy is significantly reduced, she said. After the decision, Mr. Protasevich said that he was insanely grateful to the country and personally to the president for pardoning him, according to a video published by Belta. Loss of power, even for a few hours, increases risk at the Zaporizhzhia plant, which is occupied by Russian troops and operated by Ukrainian engineers. We've wrapped up our live coverage for the day. Subscribe to the weekly Policy Currents newsletter to receive updates on the issues that matter most. It's past midnight in Kyiv, and news was dominated today by the fallout from a devastating Russian strike on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. The Pardee RAND Graduate School (PardeeRAND.edu) is home to the only Ph.D. and M.Phil. Smoke rises from a destroyed Russian tank on the side of a road in the Luhansk region of . It was not immediately possible to know who the people are, where they are going and how they survived. Stymied in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has amped up the political theater to achieve his objectives. A Ukrainian soldier examines a fragment of a Russian Air Force Su-25 jet after a battle at the village of Kolonshchyna, Ukraine, on April 21. This flood of information makes hiding large military formations increasingly difficult, if not impossible. Copyright 2023 NPR. These Russian forces collectively outnumbered Ukraines army and possessed greater numbers of tanks, armored vehicles, artillery and attack aircraft. This political logic, despite the success of the counteroffensive, casts doubt on the prospects of the conflict ending with a decisive battlefield defeat of Russian forces in the near term. The Russian Military's Looming Personnel Crises of Retention and Veteran Mental Heath, Helping Coastal Communities Plan for Climate Change, Measuring Wellbeing to Help Communities Thrive, Assessing and Articulating the Wider Benefits of Research, >Russias War in Ukraine: Insights from RAND, One Year After Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Experts React, Stalled in Ukraine, Kremlin Increasingly Turns to Political Theater, Russian Troops Know How Little They Mean to Putin, Russia's Appetite May Extend Beyond Ukraine. And, in the case of Ukraine, its ingenuity. Ukrainian forces had deemed it key to Bakhmuts defense because the village lies on high ground east of roads into the city that were crucial for resupplying the forces defending the city. And that saves lives," said Korshak. Before the war, Bakhmut was known for sparkling wine. They focused on continued air defenses for Ukraine, and that's key to striking the Russian missiles and drones and also, here's the thing, preventing the Russian air force from flying into Ukrainian airspace. Employees are in shock after digging animals out from the rubble of a veterinary clinic that was hit by a Russian rocket in the city of Dnipro Friday, according to the clinic's owner. Russias border in the area is well fortified with mines, trenches and barriers. But in May 2021, he was on a Ryanair flight from Greece to Lithuania when a Belarusian fighter jet forced the plane to land in Minsk, the Belarusian capital. Before the war, a sprawling winery in Bakhmut, Ukraine, stored aging bottles in underground caves. The 1973 war forced the conclusion that even limited conventional conflict was too hazardous to attempt. June 10, 2022 A Ukrainian soldier near the Donbas region, June 2022 Gleb Garanich / Reuters Play Download Article With Russia's war against Ukraine having passed the 100-day mark, calls for the conflict to be brought to an end are multiplying in the United States and Europe. Since the war began, the authorities have spent about 10 billion rubles about $125 million to strengthen the defenses of the Belgorod region, according to a statement by the regional construction minister to the news agency Interfax in February. A woman named Yulia Honcharova said her dog Leia is from the clinic. Hanna Maliar, a deputy Ukrainian minister of defense, said on Monday that while the enemy is mopping up the areas of the city under his control, Ukraine is continuing the struggle for dominant heights around the city. More than 1,500 people in Belarus are considered to be political prisoners by rights groups and many are said to serve their sentences in dire conditions. The commander of Ukraines ground forces, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, conceded over the weekend that only a small contingent of Ukrainian soldiers is now inside Bakhmut, a tacit acknowledgment that Russia had prevailed in its nearly yearlong campaign to seize the city. They're asking what happens if this counteroffensive fizzles? The authoritative record of NPRs programming is the audio record. The group operates under the umbrella of Ukraines International Legion, a fighting force overseen by Ukrainian officers. He said Russian forces have set up checkpoints blocking a bridge near the Azovstal plant, and described a scene of confusion, with Russian emergency workers at the scene of the strike. He's speaking through a translator, and he only gave his first name for security reasons. Efrem Lukatsky/AP One video showed several soldiers and three armored vehicles, including one bearing an insignia previously seen on Ukrainian equipment, around a damaged building. But Kyiv might still achieve some of its key objectives by blockading the peninsula. Members of the 80th Air Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces prepare to fire a barrage of rockets toward Bakhmut. SHAPIRO: Explain what that counteroffensive actually is. These jets might not make a difference on the battlefield two months from now, but the knowledge that several hundred of them are in the pipeline for the next five years would have profound symbolic importance. It was a ballistic missile that hit Dnipropetrovsk City Hospital No. Ukrainian military analysts near Bakhmut reviewed videos from drones in January. The 80th Air Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces firing a barrage of rockets in the direction of Bakhmut during a night operation, last week. KAKISSIS: The Ukrainians' biggest goal is very simple and very ambitious. Its ad-hoc approach to replacing personnel and equipment risks overcommitting its remaining forces to missions it could struggle to bear. Today, as the fighting continues, casualties mount, and the humanitarian crisis worsens, it's unclear what will happen next. An explosion lit up the sky as a small surveillance team for the Ukrainian Army scanned the horizon over Bakhmut in December. Greg Myre is an NPR national security correspondent. Bakhmut, which Russia triumphantly claimed on Sunday to have captured, is a ruined city that has taken on outsize importance in the war. Her plea for pardon was rejected. Russian forces captured the village of Klishchiivka, south of Bakhmut. Is a negotiated settlement possible? In the fall, the two sides fought nearby, and the shelling of the city intensified. Many military analysts have suggested that Bakhmut would have more symbolic than strategic value for Russia. KAKISSIS: So, you know, Ukrainian leaders are feeling a lot of pressure right now, Ari. David Petraeus Competition between the United States and Russia occurs at many levels, from the military arena to the economic, political, and social realms. Here's what they said. The battle below played out in muted ferocity. Ukrainian soldiers atop a tank moving toward the front line near Bakhmut last week. The hearse carrying the body of Sgt. The tanks include the latest T-90s plus upgraded T-80s and T-72s. 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Russia's has a far larger air force than Ukraine, but the Ukrainians have used drones effectively in the current conflict. President Zelenskyy is refusing to even consider peace talks with Russia unless that happens. How Ukraine is using resistance warfare developed by the US to fight back against Russia By Oren Liebermann, CNN Updated 10:36 AM EDT, Sat August 27, 2022 Link Copied! A buildup of troops in the Zaporizhzhia region ahead of a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive in the area has added to concerns about nuclear safety. A Ukrainian serviceman digs a trench outside the capital Kyiv in March. And, you know, some Ukrainian officials have an even bigger endgame like Oleksiy Danilov who's the head of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council. Meanwhile, Ukrainian artillery units are using a network of computer tablets on the battlefield. It would be devastating for Ukraine if Russia gained control of the sky, so that's why you have the air defenses. Andrey Borodulin/Agence France-Presse Getty Images, breaking through a Russian defensive position, in two gatherings of leaders from Europe and North America, is increasingly emphasizing patriotism and the heroism of their countrys military, with interest and studying the situation, but it has nothing to do with it., claimed over the weekend to have captured, leafy streets and brick apartment buildings. The clinic had numerous dogs and some cats, which were all transferred to clinics nearby, according to Malyshko. Ukrainian armed forces hit Mariupol on Friday with two long-range missiles, according to the occupied citys Russian-installed mayor, Oleg Morgun. The Gorbachev upheaval was in part the result of this realization. Russian defeat does not require a march on Moscow (rarely a good idea in the past), and it does not require a Russia that is defenseless and devastated (impossible without World War III). On March 8, the Pentagon estimated, albeit with "low confidence," that the war had claimed the lives of 2,000 to 4,000 Russians soldiers. The situation grew dire for the Ukrainians, with their main remaining supply route which one general called the last breathing tube coming under increasing attack from Russian forces. Republish this article Email Twitter Facebook LinkedIn Print Ukrainian forces, aided by Western firepower, have upset traditional military logic once again. The Ukrainians, Mc Daid said, have learned many tricks from battling the Russians. Plus, dozens of RAND experts are providing timely insights that may help inform policy responses to Russia's war. The United States has suffered from a deliberate fuzziness in formulating its objectives in the Russian war in Ukraine. As fighting around the city in eastern Ukraine rages on, drone footage taken by The New York Times on Friday captured the scorched buildings, destroyed schools, and cratered parks that now define Bakhmut. New technology may ease this task. While no nuclear threat should be ignored, Putin's pronouncements remain in the realm of propaganda. Russia's invasion has also led the European Union to do more - and more together with the United States and with NATO - than ever before. But pressure from Ukraine's President Zelenskyy, NATO allies, and some on Capitol Hill, as well as the Russian brutality against civilians, have all served to ramp up aid with artillery and then tanks and now, of course, F-16s. The Ukrainians have stressed basic measures, like digging deeper trenches to defend against Russian artillery, as well as high-tech methods, like using computer tablets on the battlefield to. LLOYD AUSTIN: So in terms of the goals and objectives of Ukraine's campaign, we'll let the Ukrainians decide what that will be. And Lloyd Austin and others have said this is Ukraine's war. From the start, the Biden administration has been playing this balancing act intent on aiding Ukraine militarily but wary of being so escalatory as to antagonize Russia. From June 1, not a single Wagner PMC fighter will be at the forefront until we undergo re-formation, re-equipment and additional training, he said. Ukraine had its first major success, pushing Russia back from Kharkiv, and counter-attacking around Kherson. BOWMAN: Right. Hours after declaring victory over the weekend, Mr. Prigozhin said he would withdraw his fighters beginning on Thursday. Given the widely reported tensions between Wagner and Russias military leadership, and communication problems within the Russian ranks, analysts say Ukraine will be watching for fissures to exploit. We should be talking about how we will rebuild Ukraines armed forces, the Wests largest, most combat-tested, and in some ways most determined army. Even if they did, it would probably take up to a year to see any benefit because their mobilization base has been dormant for so long. They employed a variant of the 19th-century military concept of central position. This concept is associated with Napoleon, who when confronted with two armies, positioned his forces between them to split the enemy. The paltering of the administration about giving our superabundant F-16s to Ukraine is foolish and shortsighted. Tanks T he Russian army has massed around 1,200 tanks for a possible invasion of Ukraine. They want to push Russian forces out of every inch of Ukrainian territory. There's no alternative but to preserve our equipment and the lives of our pilots.". You could call them 'war hacks.' Three months of war: Russia underachieves, Ukraine overachieves, Ukraine says it's downed 200 aircraft, a mark of Russian failures in the sky. Advancing deep into Ukrainian territory. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko said Thursday that the transfer of some tactical nuclear weapons from Russia to Belarus has begun, according to state news agency Belta. Videos posted online on Monday and verified by The New York Times showed the aftermath of an attack on a border post near Grayvoron, a town in Belgorod, north of the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv. Conditions for workers at the plant have been strained because of the presence of Russian troops and by a long-running effort by Russias state nuclear agency, Rosatom, to assume management. Carl von Clausewitz, the German philosopher of war, said that war is a trial of moral and physical forces through the medium of the latter. First, you'll never find a soldier who likes to dig one. Ukraine may lack the military capability to retake Crimea from Russia. War in Ukraine Ukraine live briefing:. Ukrainian. A few remaining civilians moved anxiously trying to find a safe path as the Russians fought in the neighborhood where the people were taking shelter. That is to say, a smaller, mobile force like the Ukrainians can defeat larger armies. Putin's invasion of Ukraine isn't going as he planned. ALEX: (Through interpreter) We're waiting at any time for the commanders to tell us what will happen. We asked nearly 30 RAND experts to highlight takeaways from the first year of Russia's all-out warand share what they're watching as the conflict in Ukraine grinds on. Russia is muddling through. Rafael Mariano Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, had said that the outage made the situation at the plant extremely vulnerable. It was the seventh time since Russias full-scale invasion in February 2022 that the plant had lost its connection to external electricity, Mr. Grossi said. KAKISSIS: Good question. How might the conflict evolve? Understanding these trade-offs can improve their decisions and contribute to the transparency and integrity of the process. But Russian literature, art, culture, and political practice are rooted in its relationship with Europe. The Russian Firehose of Falsehood Propaganda Model: Why It Might Work and Options to Counter It. Instead of instating policies based on the flawed assumption that refugees just need temporary humanitarian solutions until they can go homeEU countries should create policies that give Ukrainian refugees some level of stability for the medium term and support the communities that host them. Rockets lit the sky. We should want victory as Ukraine defines it. Doing so likely hollowed out Moscows forces in the east and compromised its ability to deploy reserves. Here's why. Bakhmut has been symbolically important to Ukraine as well. Meanwhile, there was shelling coming from the Ukrainian-held side Friday evening, according to the Russian-backed Donetsk People's Republic's (DPR) Joint Center for Control and Coordination. Family and friends at a restaurant after the funeral, where they prayed and spoke about Sergeant Shargorodskyis life. And, you know, Ukraine is actually disputing that. Facing a more powerful Russian army, the Ukrainians have had to figure out ways to defend themselves. And this Russia would be far less dangerous to us, far less useful to China, far less likely to raise monstrous new threats in the years to come. A top Ukrainian official said today that it has begun. Ideas russia The Russian Grand Strategy Guiding the Invasion of Ukraine A burning building after bombing in Kyiv, Ukraine, Thursday, March 3 Maxim Dondyuk Ideas By Ian Morris March 5,. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. But Franak Viacorka, another Belarusian opposition activist, said that the pardon had come at a cost. For now, she said, Ukrainian soldiers had fulfilled their primary objective in the battle for Bakhmut. "Two of the injured are in serious condition, 12 people are in moderate condition, and the rest have minor injuries,"Lukashuk added. Thank you both. The Ukrainians have stressed basic measures, like digging deeper trenches to defend against Russian artillery, as well as high-tech methods, like using computer tablets on the battlefield to coordinate their artillery fire. That was one long night of hundreds, as Bakhmut became the focal point of some of the fiercest fighting of the war the object of acute desire for Russia and of a tenacious defense by Ukraine. And he knows that this limbo state is destabilizing for Ukrainian society and for his government. SHAPIRO: Joanna, what are you hearing from Ukrainian officials about the ultimate goal here? The notion of a winner, however, defies what is so clearly lost the many lives and homes in the once peaceful city, known for its salt-mines and sparkling wine, largely reduced to ashes. The path of a war is unpredictable. Russia is mopping up inside Bakhmut as Ukraine seeks to advance outside the city. Oleksandr Shargorodskyis death. Conversely, Russian defeat would put Beijingalready somewhat nervous about its partners incompetence and wild statementson the defensive, consolidate the Western alliance, and help preserve some of the essential norms of decent behavior in those parts of the world most important to us. NATO and Allies continue to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence. Chinese Next-Generation Psychological Warfare, America Is Winning Against China in Oceania, Arming Teachers, F-16s in Ukraine, Commercial Spaceflight: RAND Weekly Recap. Friday also brought reports of explosions on Russian soil and in territories it currently occupies in Ukraine, along with developments in a diplomatic row about foreign fighters. And that's why he keeps flying around the world saying we need these advanced weapons as soon as possible so we can win this and hopefully end this conflict on terms favorable to Ukraine. ET), causing a fire, according to clinic owner Dr. Andrii Malyshko. American University School of International Service and American University provide funding as members of The Conversation US. The views expressed are his own and do not reflect the views or positions of the U.S. Marine Corps, the Department of Defense, or any part of the U.S. government. A funeral in Irpin in February for Eduard Strauss, a Ukrainian soldier who died fighting near Bakhmut. The United States has a strong interest in avoiding a long war in Ukraine. General Syrsky said those few troops would continue defending their ground in order to provide opportunities to enter the city in case of a change of circumstances.. Local dog owners have launched a campaign to gather donations for Malyshko and his clinic. But the Russians have . Bakhmut itself saw weeks of fighting in 2014 when the separatists attempted to seize the city, but eventually Ukrainian forces re-established full control. Interestingly he also stated that blocking of all phone calls from #Ukraine to Russia is *not* in place, in order to monitor these conversations. A Ukrainian serviceman digs a trench outside the capital Kyiv in March. Accuracy and availability may vary. From the June 2023 issue: The counteroffensive. An example of how US military hackers look to frustrate their adversaries came in 2018, when Cyber Command temporarily knocked offline a Russian troll farm spouting disinformation during the 2018 election. Similarly, we know how the Russians define victory: a Ukraine broken and severed from the West, much of its territory annexed; a Europe in disarray that resumes its addiction to cheap natural resources and business opportunities in Moscow; and the reconstruction of much of the old Russian imperial state. At the same time, Moscow, which broadly held territory east of the city, cut off supply routes into Bakhmut that Ukrainian forces were using. Residents walked past damaged buildings after collecting aid from a humanitarian group in Bakhmut in January. President Volodymyr Zelensky who once vowed that the city he called a fortress would not fall cited Bakhmut in a high-profile appearance before the U.S. Congress in December, when he presented the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, with a Ukrainian flag signed by soldiers fighting there. While there have been numerous reports of Ukrainians shelling targets across the border over the course of the 15-month conflict, ground assaults are rare. The EU and its member-states have provided over $75 billion in military, economic, humanitarian support to Ukraine. The comments signaled a shift in how Ukraine is portraying the wars deadliest campaign as Russia claims its first significant battlefield success since last summer. Professor of Strategic Studies, Marine Corps University; Scholar-in-Residence, American University, American University School of International Service. Ukraines top military commander concedes that only a small contingent of troops is still defending Bakhmut, site of the wars deadliest battle. Russia's has a far larger air force than Ukraine, but the Ukrainians have used drones effectively in the current conflict. Modern war takes place during an open-source intelligence revolution in which commercial satellite photos and a constant stream of social media facts and fiction bombard politicians, soldiers and citizens. Russia was expected to establish air superiority in the first days of the war. March 7, 2022. KAKISSIS: And from Alex's perspective, the wheels of the counteroffensive have already started turning. Hein Goemans and Branislav Slantchev: Why Ukraine shouldnt talk to Russiayet. Talks about tactical encirclement are premature and probably reflect a hasty response to the citys fall, Konrad Muzyka, a defense analyst for Rochan Consulting, wrote on Monday. While Ukraine was building up forces in Kherson in the south and using rocket artillery, sabotage and unconventional warfare to attack infrastructure to isolate Russian troops, it also maintained a large armored force in the east. Mr. Protasevich was forced to collaborate, Mr. Viacorka wrote in a Twitter post on Monday, adding, Pardoning doesnt mean freedom: he is under the hood.. Since then, Ukraine has had to figure out creative ways to defend itself and fight back, from low-tech to high-tech. But to achieve it, the West must not only aid in the defeat of Russiait must convince Russia that it has been defeated. Kyiv needed to disrupt the ability of Russia to hold an illegitimate referendum in Kherson and occupied territory in the east the same playbook Moscow used to seize Ukrainian territory in 2014 through the Minsk agreement. "The Ukrainians took it and were able to use it in ways that I did not know were possible. The Critical Moment Behind Ukraine's Rapid Advance. After the Kremlin claimed on Sunday to have seized Bakhmut, Russian state media celebrated one newscast compared the battle there to major victories of the Soviet Union in World War II. "Our planes can't stand up technologically. Will the U.S. and the European Union really stand by Ukraine as long as it takes? Russian tanks and armor have been hit hard during this invasion, but its air force is still formidable. Surrounded by sunflower fields and salt mines in the mineral rich Donbas region, the citys leafy streets and brick apartment buildings were once home to about 70,000 people. Ukraines military planners used old concepts optimized for a new era in designing its counteroffensive. In fact, it has happened on a smaller scale before. Again, Ukraine wants all Russians out. In the air war, Russia has far more fighter jets, which are a generation more advanced than the aging, Soviet-era MiG planes the Ukrainians are flying. To that end, with the utmost urgency, the West should give everything that Ukraine could possibly use, including long-range missiles to break for good the 11-mile Kerch bridge between the mainland and Crimea, and cluster munitions to devastate Russian fighting vehicles and infantry. The addition of both well-armed Nordic nations will represent an asset to NATO as it seeks to harden Europe's eastern edges against Russia and signal its readiness to rebuff any future attack. The time may comeyears or, more likely, decades from nowwhen a postimperial Russia will turn westward again. By Simone McCarthy, Andrew Raine, Sana Noor Haq, Aditi Sangal, Leinz Vales, Matt Meyer and Elise Hammond, CNN. In other words, at the strategic level even if the recent counteroffensive had not gained large amounts of territory or defeated entire Russian divisions it could have complicated Moscows ability to hold a referendum in occupied territory. Mr. Zelensky told Ukrainians that the situation is getting more and more difficult, and Ukraines military barred aid workers and other civilians from entering Bakhmut for safety reasons, a decision thatwas seen as a prelude to a possible withdrawal. Thursday, March 3rd, 2022 Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said of the Dnipro attack in his daily address Friday: "It is a pure atrocity: a Russian missile, ballistics against a hospital and a veterinary clinic. In the recent counteroffensive, Ukraine used a central position to confront two concentrations of Russian forces, one in the east around the city of Kharkiv and the Donbas region which includes portions of Donetsk and Luhansk and a second in the south along the Dnieper River and Kherson. Share. Russia says Crimea. To the south, Russian incendiary munitions floated downward, the thin arc of white flames igniting small fires on the ground but little else. In his " declaration of war " speech to the nation on February 24, Putin set out the objectives of his "special operation": his goals were to "strive for the demilitarisation and denazification of. And now, the city of Bakhmut appears to have fallen to the Russians after 10 months, leaving thousands of soldiers wounded or killed, and a lingering question: How did a nondescript city the world had never heard of become the place where both sides decided to fight to the end, no matter the cost? A Belarusian court in May sentenced Mr. Protasevich to eight years in prison for crimes including acts of terrorism and insulting the president. President Biden's decision last month to help Ukraine obtain F-16 fighter jets marked another crossing of a Russian red line that Vladimir Putin has said would transform the war and draw . Oleksandr Chubko, Oleg Matsnev and Milana Mazaeva contributed reporting. What looks like an early-morning haze spreading across the shattered skyline is the acrid smoke that hung heavy after another night of relentless shelling. When the Ukraine conflict is over and Ukraine has restored its borders, as it must, we will have a damaged, vindictive, and brutal Russia, whose means of harming us is through air attack,. In Dnipro, the mayor said one strike hit the city's centre. Belarus pardons an opposition activist who was hauled off a Ryanair flight, state media says. But Ukraine sent in reinforcements, including a variety of elite units, and managed to push Russian forces back far enough to allow resupply of soldiers in the city and evacuation of the wounded. Drawing upon decades of experience, RAND provides research services, systematic analysis, and innovative thinking to a global clientele that includes government agencies, foundations, and private-sector firms. What Difference Will Polish and Slovakian Fighter Jets Make to Ukraine? A few hours later, Ukrenergo said that it had restored the external power line to the plant and that the system was running smoothly. Guest General (ret.) What is it? To be out in the open, especially if you're not technologically more advanced, it . In place of the go-for-broke attempt to swallow the country in a hundred-hour war, to be completed with a tank parade in. He simply gave them up, he said in a video following Mr. Protasevichs sentencing in May. But as Joanna points out, you know, they're hitting the supplies, infrastructure, and that could leave these poorly trained and lightly armed Russian forces in a more vulnerable position. hide caption. programs offered at an independent public policy research organizationthe RAND Corporation. SHAPIRO: NPR's Joanna Kakissis and Tom Bowman. Across the border, the Ukrainian army. Russians must, moreover, conclude that Ukraineformerly, in their view, a pseudo-state containing cousins or little brothersis gone forever. Russia must be convinced that the military instrument, and its deployment in large-scale war, will inevitably fail, and it must realize that Ukraine is permanently and completely lost. It is now nearly empty of all civilians. In June 2021, Mr. Protasevich acknowledged that many people consider me a traitor for helping the Belarusian authorities after his arrest. The Ukrainian government, which typically follows a policy of deliberate ambiguity about strikes inside Russian territory, said that it had not been behind the attack. But who would not prefer to deal with a thousand troll farms and front organizations than one Mariupol? What Ukrainian officials are saying: Petro Andriushchenko, an adviser to the city's Ukrainian mayor, chimed in about Friday's blast in a series of Telegram posts. Even if Ukraine makes significant gains in the south and retakes Kherson, Moscow can still opt for a large-scale mobilization and continue the war until either Russian elites or its citizens turn on Putin and his inner circle. The current conflict is more than one country fighting to take over another; it is in the words of one U.S. official a shift in "the world order. hide caption. Call it the "Ukrainian way of war . "I'm not surprised that they are doing very well getting new equipment, and how quickly they're able to learn to use it," said Hodges. Watch on General (ret.) Ukraine's military displays a Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drone at a military parade in the capital Kyiv on Aug. 20, 2021. Here is an aerial look at the wars destruction. Mr. Gladkov initially played down reports of violence, saying that there was a massive informational attack underway, and sought to calm residents nerves in a video posted Monday morning. SHAPIRO: Joanna, how much is riding on this latest Ukrainian offensive? The Kremlin sought to play down the incident, with its spokesman Dmitri S. Peskov telling the Russian news agency Tass that it was a Ukrainian attempt to divert attention from the situation in Bakhmut, the eastern city that Russian forces claimed over the weekend to have captured after a nearly yearlong battle. We are trying to feel the enemys weak spots and gradually, step by step, we are trying to squeeze him out, occupying advantageous positions for us, taking the initiative, he said in an interview with the Ukrainian broadcaster RBC-Ukraine. Russians will see they have problems between their own citizens, so the idea of unified Russia is seriously damaged, Mr. Zagorodnyuk said. At a more tactical level, Ukraine has proven a master of using precision strikes to hamper the movement of Russian troops. We must agree to protect plant now; this situation cannot continue. Social media videos posted by unofficial accounts show a smoke plume seen above Mariupol. CNN cannot independently verify this claim. A Ukrainian sergeant who died outside Bakhmut is buried amid his daughters cries. In Vietnam and Afghanistan, the United States was defeated without losing a single battle. Rather, it will be achieved inside the heads of Russias leaders and population. Bakhmut is one of a string of industrial cities in the Donbas region, which is a main source of Ukraines production of coal and other commodities. He became the commander of U.S. Army Europe shortly after that first Russian incursion. Russians need to be reminded that their faltering economy is only a tenth the size of the EUs; that they cannot build and deploy a modern tank; that their latest high-performance jet, the Su-57, will be outnumbered by the F-35s of the four small Nordic states; that their generals are superannuated and incompetent; that their high command is indifferent to their mens lives; that their equipment is inferior to that of Ukraine; and that their logistics are rotted by graft and corruption. Russia later claimed to have seized a handful of villages near Soledar, further imperiling resupply routes into Bakhmut. A tank burned in the distance. ARI SHAPIRO, HOST: Ukraine appears to have started its next big move against Russia, and Pentagon officials today held a meeting with other nations providing support for the war. ", A very good article from the head of the SSSCIP on Ukraine's #Mobilenetwork response. In fierce urban combat,Ukrainian forces defended a western pocket of the city that was just 20 blocks wide, steadily shrinking and relentlessly pounded by artillery. "The Belarusian regime is an accomplice in Russia's illegal and unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine," the European External Action Service said in a statement, calling on Belarus to . On May 20, Mr. Prigozhin claimed the city was fully under Wagner control, which Russias Defense Ministry later echoed. At that time, Mr. Grossi said that the evacuation of the town closest to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant had made the situation at the facility increasingly unpredictable and potentially dangerous and had added to the risk of an accident. Officials now appear to be acknowledging that their focus is changing from defending Bakhmut to making it difficult for Russians to hold it. KYIV, Ukraine There are two important things to know about military trenches. Here's what he came home with. In the words of John Paul IIthe unarmed, lone old man who did so much to bring Soviet communism to its kneesNever doubt, never tire, and never become discouraged. Russian shelling again briefly knocked out power to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, which switched to backup diesel generators to keep critical cooling equipment running, Ukrainian nuclear officials said on Monday. in organizing mass protests against President Aleksandr G . "You know, there's planning, a lot of planning. Some of Mr. Protasevichs former allies in the opposition have suggested that he might have been shown leniency in return for his cooperation. The success of the counteroffensive has shown that what is known in military circles as operational art the creative use of time, space and forces to achieve a position of advantage can be more important than relative combat power and simply counting the tanks and artillery possessed by either side in conflict. Residents of Bakhmut trying to extinguish a fire using buckets of water after rockets hit homes in the area in July. Russia was expected to establish air superiority in the first days of the war. What Does Environmental Justice Look Like? Severing that access would force the Ukrainian forces to retreat to avoid being surrounded. Here is a look at how the battle unfolded: When two Ukrainian cities in the Luhansk region of eastern Ukraine fell to Russian forces in quick succession last summer, Bakhmut, a city about 30 miles to the southwest, became the next target of Russias campaign to secure the whole of the Donbas. The enemy has suffered huge losses, and we have gained time for certain actions that can be described later.. Podolyak said similar strikes have hit residential areas and places like hospitals and schools in the last few months. The Chinese government has made significant investments in military cyber capabilities and empowered a number of proxy organizations to pursue malicious cyber activities against the United States, the summary of the new Defense Department strategy says. Let's listen. Instead, Ukraine says it's shot down 200 Russian aircraft. Russia's attack on a hospital in Dnipro city was a "deliberate strike on a civilian object," Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said, adding that it proves Russia is targeting civilians. Russia's military strategy in Ukraine is in the spotlight after it claimed to change tack, but after multiple false flags and broken promises from Russia there are major doubts over the Kremlin . This use of public statements and action to shape an adversarys decision-making is also consistent with the old Soviet concept of reflexive control, which uses misinformation to skew how the target perceives the world and conditions them to make self-defeating decisions. The cleaning of the territory by the Ministry of Defense together with law enforcement agencies continues, the regional governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov, said on the messaging app Telegram. "This is absolutely clear evidence that Russia has in principle changed the tactics of its rocket attacks. That means speedy accession to the EU and NATO, but also a deep Western commitment to rebuilding Ukraine economically and, most important, arming it to the teeth for years to come. Family members of Sgt. There was no immediate word on casualties or damage. Follow him @gregmyre1. The city of Bakhmut was renamed Artemivsk in 1924 by the Soviet leadership in honor of the Bolshevik revolutionary Fyodor Artem Sergeyev, a friend of Stalins. How do we interpret Putin's statements? Such things have happened before. On February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin launched an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, setting off the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II. The blast set the second floor on fire. A sports complex, school, surrounding homes and cars were also damaged. The roots of Russia's invasion of Ukraine go back decades and run deep. "So we have to use what we have with maximal effectiveness. Russia was also expected to dominate the information war. Tom, I mentioned that military officials from the U.S. and other nations supporting Ukraine met today. An honor guard carried Sergeant Shargorodskyis coffin. That does not mean, however, that Russias grip on the city is assured. And Cyber Command, the military unit responsible for hacking operations, has taken on a greater role in defending US critical infrastructure, including elections, from cyber threats. Don't expect some World War II scene, like millions of soldiers swimming across the Dnipro River. The final theory of victorythat the West does not have the heart to pour vast resources into Ukraine indefinitelyneeds to be disproved as well, because there is nothing beyond that. Ukraine knows how it defines victory: the pre-2014 borders cleansed of the invader, its exiles and refugees returned, its society and economy rebuilt, membership in the European Union and NATO . KYIV, Ukraine Russian forces are engaged in mopping up operations to clear the remaining Ukrainian soldiers from the ruins of Bakhmut, a senior Ukrainian official said on Monday, as Kyivs military commanders seek to shift the focus from their apparent loss of the city to the battle for its outskirts. For months, even as its hold on Bakhmut shrunk to a few western blocks, Ukraine would emphasize fierce fighting to keep the Russians from seizing the city. What are they hoping Ukraine reasonably accomplishes? Sergeant Shargorodskyi had fought in the Bakhmut area since late last year. Feasibility planning goes in beforehand. That includes $18 billion in security assistance, from air defense systems to Leopard . A group called the Free Russia Legion, which says its ranks are made up of Russians, claimed to be behind the attacks. Above all, it would block the Russian imperial project for good, because without Ukraine, as the historian Dominic Lieven has noted, Russia cannot be an empire. CNN's Tim Lister contributed reporting to this post. Moscow wanted to use the referendum to justify annexing Ukrainian territory and show progress to a weary Russian public. Oleksandr Shargorodskyi, a Ukrainian service member who was killed in Bakhmut, during his funeral in Trebukhiv, Ukraine, on Sunday. An adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky, Mykhailo Podolyak, said that Kyiv was watching the events in Belgorod with interest and studying the situation, but it has nothing to do with it.. Mr. Grossi also said that he was alarmed by the increasingly tense, stressful, and challenging conditions for personnel and their families.. It's about an hour's drive away from actually a very well-known part of the front line, and that's what remains of the city of Bakhmut.
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