As bigger animals with fast metabolisms humans require a lot of food, constantly. Introduction. The following two scenarios are based on the idea that society is on the brink of extinction (at two different times, one in the distance future and one in the near future). Significantly, we have established a world that requires international relations and cooperation between different groups of people and different cultures. However, in some circumstances shared encounters would lead to cooperation and the sharing of ideas and resources. Gott, J.R. III (1993), Implications of the Copernican principle for our future prospects, Nature, Vol. 74,000 years ago, a super volcanic explosion ejected debris into the atmosphere, that lead scientists to believe that it caused the Earth to cool by several degrees Celsius. Our review begins by examining what we believe to be the key concepts in tourism CB research. 1-5. Cresswell et al. (2023), "The future past of travel: adventure tourism supporting humans living on the edge of existence", Journal of Tourism Futures, Vol. Adventure Travel Trade Association (2021), Adventure travel guide qualifications and performance standard III. 2, pp. Dystopia and desperate visions of a deadly end are never far away from fiction and non-fiction literature and visuals. Definitions, The European market potential for adventure tourism, Accelerated modern human-induced species losses: entering the sixth mass extinction, Adventure Tourism Market: Opportunities and Forecasts, 2019-2026, Health care robotics: qualitative exploration of key challenges and future directions, Risk and the outdoor adventure experience: good risk, bad risk, real risk, apparent risk, objective risk, subjective risk. Organisms with vast geographical existence are likely to do better if met with catastrophes, and we have learnt to live in a range of different geographical habitats. (2020), The Future Past of Tourism: Historical Perspectives and Future Evolutions, Channel View Publications, Bristol. However, as we move further into the 21st century, could we see a greater move to more outdoor based activities. Here, the future past of travel contemplates how the last of us, will return to more hunter-gather characteristics, where travel is less about less and more about survival. It is difficult to predict if an event of similar magnitude can happen today, with data suggesting that a super volcanic eruption occurs on average every 17,000 years. This paper discusses the development of research in the field of adventure tourism and propagates that research should be increasingly focussing on theory building. (1992), Introduction, in Weiler, B. and Hall, C.M. Would our governments support us, as many historical examples prove otherwise? Our modern techno driven society has arguably pulled us away from the outdoors, driven us indoors, creating a more screen (mobile phones, TVs and computers) orientated society. So, many of us have come to rely on the availability of food in supermarkets or at our front doors. According to Longrich (2020) the short answer is yes, as fossil records provide evidence that almost all species that ever lived, over 99.9%, have gone extinct. Apart from giving an overview of current literature and discussion, this paper also looks into future trends in adventure tourism. There are no simple answers to this question, just ideas and propositions of how and when we could. However, adventure tourism and the activities connected to the industry could offer individuals with some support in recapturing some of our basic instincts and survival skills. Yeoman, I. and McMahon-Beattie, U. Ross, J. Barrett, M. (2016), Living planet report 2016, available at: https://www.wwf.org.uk/updates/landmark-report-shows-global-wildlife-populations-course-decline-67-cent-2020 (accessed 13 January 2021). Importantly, it does so as a means of stressing that in the event of catastrophic change to the environment, society might be forced to adapt. It must be stated that the discussions in this section draw on evidence and ideas that see a more dystopian view of the future. Others would be a little better prepared, as they would have lived a lifestyle that allowed them to be more accustomed to outdoor living (this is especially the case in scenario 2). However, the signs and messages being poured on society around the idea of a Judgment Day event are widespread. Rifkin, L. (2013), The survival of humanity, available at: https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/the-survival-of-humanity/ (accessed 16 January 2021). Anyone may reproduce, distribute, translate and create derivative works of this article (for both commercial and non-commercial purposes), subject to full attribution to the original publication and authors. Thus, maybe individuals themselves will become increasingly motivated (due recent events such as COVID-19 sparking new enthusiasm) to acquire more outdoor skills. Likewise, develop better provision to detect, prevent and halt emerging pandemic infectious diseases that could spread rapidly across the globe. Younger adults seek microadventures nearby their home. Accepting that we could eventually die off as a species is difficult to contemplate, and for many not something they do, as they are likely to pass away before any great catastrophic event. This study applies a scenario narrative approach in exploring and presenting potential future ideas. Li, X., (Robert) and Petrick, J.F. This quote sets a vivid image of a potential future and ultimately, a vision that this paper explores in more detail in order to set the parameters around the value of preparedness and how adventure tourism can play its part in the eventuality of any above scenario becoming a reality. Therefore, future research is now at the forefront of many research papers. Where we end up as a species of course, is a more complex question. Sport and Adventure Tourism serves as a unique reference resource for sports and tourism professionals . 1. Lee suggests that humans have now amassed enough knowledge of our world that we can produce real, valid and valuable foreknowledge offering anticipatory predictions of future conditions. You may be able to access this content by logging in via your Emerald profile. Some communities would be better prepared (to survive off the land), but many of us no longer have the skills to do so. 3-25. As the authors note, the demise of the human species is a topic that is frequently considered, and at present, if we continue as we are, it is more a matter of when the end will come, not if (Figueres and Rivett-Carnacby, 2020, pp. Travel once again centres mainly on the needs for acquiring necessities for survival and to mitigate climatic conditions. Hobsbawn, E.J. 18-21. Following each scenario is a brief consideration / discussion on how society could end up is such a situation. and Palmer, T.M. Travelling like nomads in order to survive, seeking food, water, shelter, protection and discovery. Two scenarios were presented, using the narrative method, each exploring the potential that our environment could eventually decline and what this would mean for Homo sapiens. But our evolution and longevity are not guaranteed. Ecosystems can recover from a certain amount of impact from humans, like temperature increases or habitat loss, but there's a tipping point at which they cannotand according to the report, we might be reaching that tipping point (Higgins, 2018). Lipscombe, N. (2007), The risk management paradox for urban recreation and park manager: providing high risk recreation within a risk management context, Annals of Leisure Research, Vol. Grossman, L. (2016), The world in 2076: thousands of people have settled on Mars, available at: https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg23231001-000-the-world-in-2076-thousands-of-people-have-settled-on-mars/ (accessed 15 January 2021). Instead, humans will continue to evolve on the planet in accordance to environmental changes that take place. However, for many, (domestic and international) travel forms part of an experience that is centred on satisfying one's pleasures and interests, rather than for survival. However, individuals could still take some measures to increase their knowledge of basic human survival skills (beyond watching Bear Grylls on television). . Nature facilitates exercise. Figure 1 provides an overview of age and level of enthusiasm, with four segments. Hall, C.M. As Longrich (2020) suggests, humans are a strange species, we have become widespread, abundant and adaptable, which could give us encouragement that we will be around from some time to come. It forces us to contemplate the possibility that we, and the universe, are more random than we like to think. However, the future is uncertain and consequently, this draws limitations to the ideas presented. Therefore, tourists who spend more time engaging with the activities presented in Figure 2, could be positioning themselves to be better equipped to deal with any sudden or more gradual changes in the natural environment; especially, changes that could result in humans being forced to live more like our nomadic (hunter-gather) ancestor, living off the land. Adventure, outdoor and recreational tourism activities encourage people to move beyond their comfort zone, to more unknown destinations, environments and to participate in activities that are more demanding (emotionally and physically) from that which people are required to express in their day to day existence. Martin, P. and Priest, S. (1986), Understanding the adventure experience, Journal of Adventure Education, Vol. Humans have a range of jobs and income opportunities, vast levels of communication and social mobility. It is suggested that the Coquimbo region has an unusual, increasing seismicity that could see a very large earthquake before the end of the 21st century. The practicality of hypothetical scenarios is they offer more flexibility, both in design and timeframe. Within a short period (a few years) the human race was decimated, with only a few hundred thousand people still alive, scattered in small communities around the globe. The question isn't so much whether humans survive the next three or three hundred thousand years, but whether we can do more than just survive (Longrich, 2020). Could we make changes in our current lifestyle and travel experiences that would prepare us for any volatile events? 1. While there are several physical health benefits to adventure travel (see nos. Therein lies the focus of this paper, the value of adventure tourism in developing a society (or individuals) that can reconnect and survive in nature. Nature can rejuvenate your soul. Through the use of creative storytelling, the scenarios aim to elicit a rich imagery of thoughts, feelings and ideas to help readers to be aware and engage in strategic thinking, conversation and preferably, changes in attitudes and behavioural. These initiatives reflect recognition of the commercial importance of adventure tourism for many nations. The past few years has seen substantial growth in the adventure tourism industry. Whilst the tourist participating can comprise of solo, friends / groups, couples and families, and age groups range from below 30 years, 3041 years, 4249 years and 50 years and above, and sales channel include travel agents and direct (Chouhan et al., 2019). Such impacts could see major coastal cities like New York and Mumbai ending up underwater. Consequently, experts believe this event led to the greatest plant and animal extinction in human history, bringing the species to the brink of extinction (Higgins, 2018). Rifkin (2013) asks the question, what can we do to prepare for a doomsday scenario and offers a list of suggestions that including some of the following: creating worldwide stockpiles of grains, food reserves, wild plant species, seeds and gene banks to safeguard genetic diversity. Moreover, a narrative approach allows the scenario designer to present a holistic view(s) of the future. Reports continue to discuss how society contemplates and is preparing for such doomsday predictions. Tipping pointLong drawn out change as a result of climate change and ecological collapse (around 700+ years from now). Likewise, slight changes could significantly impact on the vast network of food distribution and trade that we have become reliant upon. Or as noted, humans have tried to blend all elements together, to provide us with the best chance of survival; genes, culture and technology all driving evolution. Strive and invest in new scientific technology which provides increased accuracy to predict and withstand major environmental threats and increased international cooperation to reduce nuclear proliferation. As the global temperatures changed, migration patterns and rain fall also altered. Scharping, N. (2020), When will Homo sapiens go extinct?, available at: https://www.discovermagazine.com/planet-earth/when-will-homo-sapiens-go-extinct (accessed 13 January 2021). Survival sets a pretty low bar. Likewise, religious text will have us believe that God will be our saviour, maybe not. Sustainable tourism should also maintain a high level of tourist satisfaction and ensure a meaningful experience to the tourists, raising their awareness about sustainability issues and promoting sustainable tourism practices amongst them. These are difficult questions, but important ones to consider. However, in such life changing scenarios, across the globe, people could be potentially forced to live and travel like that of our hunter-gather ancestors. In the event of a natural disaster that leaves millions (even billions) of people in desperation, would our more hunter-gather instincts come to the fore? You may be able to access teaching notes by logging in via your Emerald profile. Likewise, there are many depictions of showcasing humanities continued existence long into the future, be it on planet Earth or by exploring the Solar System and beyond. What is the importance of adventure tourism? Scientific America (2012), What may become of Homo sapiens, available at: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-may-become-of-homo-sapiens/ (accessed 15 January 2021). This is where travel and tourism could offer some significant benefits to individuals who are interested in developing more outdoor skills, and ultimately, better prepare humanity for any potentially challenging times ahead. As noted earlier, many of the current solutions in dealing with a potential doomsday scenario are top-down and offer very little to the everyday individual. Established in 1990, the Adventure Travel Trade Association is the largest global network of adventure travel leaders. In the event that you are forced to fend for yourself, having some of the survival skills that were common with our earliest of ancestors could prove useful. 23 No. Humans could find themselves living once again in small isolated communities around the globe. Wright, D.W.M. This idea is supported by Ceballos et al. By some means or another (natural or manmade), a catastrophic event puts humanity on the brink of extinction? 68-69. Drake (2017) notes, in the last half-billion years, life on Earth has been nearly wiped out five times due to events such as climate change, an intense ice age, volcanoes and a space rock smashing into the Gulf of Mexico 65 million years ago, obliterating the dinosaurs and a bunch of other species. Thus, this paper highlights the value and importance of the industry in encouraging soft and hard outdoor adventure in the coming years. Midrange predictions include the loss of most global agricultural land and freshwater sources. Polkinghorne, D.E. Ultimately, in both scenarios, humanity is on the brink with only a few hundred thousand Homo sapiens left. Definitions, available at: https://www.adventuretravel.biz/education/adventure-edu/guide-standards/adventure-travel-guide-qualifications-performance-standard-iii-definitions/ (accessed 15 January 2021). 20 No. Travel is not something new to us; it has evolved throughout time, with its roots located to our earliest of ancestors. You'll expand your cultural horizons People often say that the world is a big place, but I didn't realize just how true that overused statement was until I actually began traveling on expeditions myself. Adventure tourism is a rising segment of the tourism industry where tourists undertake an activity outside of their comfort zone and where some risk is an essential feature. In the event of a doomsday scenario, people could be left scattered across the planet, fending for themselves. Discover the secrets to success in sport-related tourism and adventure travel!This essential handbook of sport-related travel provides an in-depth look at an international industry growing by leaps and bounds. This paper, therefore, draws on ideas of the past in order to present ideas for the future. Rifkin even suggests selecting a small number of people to keep protected in a refugee sanctuary with enough supplies to last for years to combat against human extinction. Thus, the two narrative scenarios presented here, whilst might not be the future, they try to offer future depictions based on current evidence. 1-5. 21 No. 68 No. According to Hobsbawn (1995), the future is a replication of the past; Yeoman and McMahon-Beattie (2016, 2020) note that if this is the case, then it should be possible by analysing the past to inform the future. 229-249. Ceballos, C., Ehrlich, P.R., Barnosky, A.D., Garcia, A., Pringle, R.M. Adventure tourism can be domestic or international, and like all the other travel, it must . Not leaving ourselves dependent on the institutions that currently support us, because, they might not be so willing or even capable when faced within unmanageable events. We have at our power the ability to change our environment to meet our needs. Adventure tourism offers the opportunity of growth, both for yourself and the destination. Heijden, Van de., Brandfield, R., Burt, G., Cairns, G. and Wright, G. (2002), The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenario, Wiley, Chichester. With soft to hard forms of adventure activities, people can develop the required knowledge and skills that will increase their survival if forced to live in the wild. As can be seen by the (soft and hard) activities that are commonly associated with adventure tourism, many of them not only teach valuable skills for survival such as hunting and fishing, but they also take place in a range of different geographical environments and climates. It may be something that has to be earned by being smarter, wiser, kinder, more carefuland luckierthan we've ever had to be before (Poundstone, 2019b). We are currently living at a time when human population is at its largest, over 7 billion. 2131). 9 reasons why adventure travel is good for you Spending time outdoors reduces stress. The importance of adventure tourism in the tourism industry and science will be demonstrated, and for the first time, the scientific examination of adventure tourism will be presented with three phases and important publications. According to Laing and Frost (2014) these travellers are seen as elite travellers who set out to be the first, climb the highest peaks, recreate journeys (of past explorers and ancient adventurers), trek in dangerous seasons and challenge themselves. 1, 2 and 3, below), the advantages for your mental wellness are just as impressive (nos. Heijden et al. bungee jumping, heli-skiing, white water rafting) and soft adventures (e.g. Whilst we are vulnerable, we are also potentially resistant to extinction because of our uniqueness to change and ability to adapt. Our likely extinction is now more certain than ever, as only a few hundred thousand remain. . Thus, it is recommend that tourism related industries and organisation make greater effort to promote and establish opportunities for people to participate in adventure based tourism. If so, society is currently overdue (the last known one being around 26,500 years ago in New Zealand). However, the types of experiences involved in adventure travel are now considered in more detail here. Today, we have established a globally connected world of travel and communication. Ideally, a doomsday scenario will not emerge, but it could. Introduction Adventure recreation involves outdoor activities in which participants interact with nature and purposefully pursue challenge and stress (Ford & Blanchard, 1993). Propper, K.R. What if our world was plunged into darkness and that all the warning signs started to become real? It emphasises the importance of adventure tourism and its associated activities as a means of supporting individuals to develop more outdoor survival skills. The focus in this paper was to ask the question, is society prepared, to not only survive but live in nature in the event of a gradual or sudden decline in our environment and ecosystems; driving Homo sapiens to the brink of extinction? However, another vision considers how humans are no longer evolving physically, and that technology has put an end to the brutal logic of natural selection and that evolution is now purely cultural (Scientific America, 2012). Like their ancestors, these people, had to re-teach themselves how to survive in the natural environment (but had the time to do this, as the degradation of the natural world was gradual). Other types of often related niche tourism types are considered and defined, such as ecotourism, wildlife tourism, sustainable and responsible tourism. Schlegelmilch and Ollenburg (2013) note that risk, fear and thrill are the primary factors motivating tourists to partake in adventure activities. important as well as challenging. Pessimistic scenarios might see natural or manmade disasters leading to widespread breakdown of social order, even civilisation and the loss of most of the human population a grim, post-apocalyptic world. Therefore, there remains significant potential and value in revisiting the skills and characteristics of our hunter-gather ancestors and reconnecting and reigniting these within us today. What remains likely and consistent, is our society and our future can expect continued uncertainty. Poundstone, W. (2019b), A math equation that predicts the end of humanity, available at: https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/2019/6/28/18760585/doomsday-argument-calculation-prediction-j-richard-gott (accessed 13 January 2021). (2004), Risk and the outdoor adventure experience: good risk, bad risk, real risk, apparent risk, objective risk, subjective risk, Australian Journal of Outdoor Education, Vol. Homo sapiens can explore the origins of human movement and travel by revisiting our hunter-gather ancestors. Interdisciplinary research teams should see into these phenomenon and analyse the different motives and implications. Today, these communities have survival characteristics similar to our earliest of ancestors, such as those shown by Hunter-gatherer groups (Groeneveld, 2016). The questions that arise are, do you think your government will save you and if not, then who will? The global adventure tourism market in 2018 was valued at $586.3 billion and by 2026 is projected to reach $1,626.7 billion (Chouhan et al., 2019). However, even moderate changes to our natural world could bring significant changes to our current living conditions, even in the more climatically balanced parts of our globe. Scenario 1 suggests that over time, due to humanities use and neglect of the natural environment, our habitats and ecosystems, which we rely on for food, water and oxygen, would slowly deplete. Thus, catastrophes impacting our natural planet (key to our survival) such as climate change and global warming, ice ages or the impact of winter after an asteroid collision can cause disruptions in the food chain, ultimately leaving humans in a vulnerable position. Whilst species exist, there are also new ones. ), Handbook of Futures Research, Greenwood Press, London, pp. For many, we are now far removed from our ancestors; we live in modern industrialised societies where people live together in a range of rural and urban environments. Scattered across the globe, these nomads migrated in search of food, led by changes in climate and the seasons. Here are 15 Key Benefits you get from adventure travel and why you should include active travel to your vacations. Humans have advanced industry and technological systems. Such changes would happen in a timeframe that would not allow us to evolve to the required level to exist in our natural environment. Thus, if the two scenarios presented here seem somewhat farfetched to the reader, then it might be that they currently live in a more comfortable and privileged society. Reference: Making Tourism More Sustainable - A Guide for Policy Makers, UNEP and UNWTO, 2005, p.11-12 For all the existential threats, we'll likely be here for a very long time, In search of an evolutionary paradigm for futures research. Within these, travel and tourism had moved from the original needs of food and water, to more complex requests, as we now find ourselves travelling the globe for leisure purpose, driven by luxury, novelty, entertainment, education and so much more. 302 No. Miles, I. Therefore, it is important to present and contemplate future ideas, because, the future remains unknown. Reich, A. Adventure tourism continues to be a niche industry much to the level and variety of skills and activities involved. Importantly, these explorer traveller's provide inspiration for other tourists to do the same. 423-443. The role of adventure tourism will then be considered. It recognises how different adventure travel activities can support people in rekindling with our more basic instincts and ultimately, surviving in different natural environments. Survival is still possible, but humans had become unaccustomed to such difficult terrain and climates. Such travel into the unknown is seen difficult in a world that is seemingly explored and well-trodden, but there will always be a constant flow of new travellers moving around the globe. Many of the skills that were key to our ancestors (hunter-gathers) surviving and eventually evolving into who we are today, are skills people can experience and develop by participating in adventure tourism activities. Figueres, C. and Rivett-Carnac, T. (2020), The Future We Choose: Surviving the Climate Crisis, Manilla Press, London. Humans are culturally relative and have evolved to become an incredibly unique species. Thus, this paper encourages the idea that people through tourism practices should reconnect with our inner origins and seek out more adventure experiences as a means to enhance one's own sense of natural survival. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2020), Global warming of 1.5 C, available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/ (accessed 15 January 2021). "Adventure tourism is a form of travel in which the perception (and often the reality) of heightened risk creates a special appeal to certain segments of the travel market." (Tourism - Principles, Practices, Philosophies - Charles R. Goeldner, J.R. Brent Ritchie and Robert W. McIntosh). 809-831. Maybe new skills will be needed that are currently unknown to us. Travel once cantered on seeking new lands and peoples, to expand human knowledge, much with the aim of discovery (for food, medicines and resources). The second and third most . Commercial operators are located in North and South America, Asia, Europe and Australasia. (2020), Adventure Tourism Industry Looks for a Way Forward, available at: https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/highlands/2647672/adventure-turism-industry-looks-for-a-way-forward/ (accessed 15 January 2021). Rather than fending for ourselves, many would likely seek out other communities and people, and through force, would take from them, what they havesurvival of the strongest. The Hadza people of Tanzania are one of the last groups to live and maintain the origins of the tradition hunters (National Geographic, 2021). In a turn of devastating events, the Earth was struck by sudden disaster(s). Figure 2 offers some insight into the level and difficulty of the activities related to adventure tourism. Humans are threatening natural habitats, and subsequently, pushing species to the brink of extinction (Barrett, 2016). They allow other tourists to imagine themselves to be the vanguards of exploration. Learn new skills. Thus, it could be argued that some forms and practices in tourism today could offer individuals the required experiences and knowledge that are more suited to our origins and potentially better prepare us if more turbulent times are ahead. By drawing on current reports, this paper positions that Homo sapiens could in the near future be faced with an increasingly uninhabitable planet. (2020), Will humans go extinct? Adventure tourism typically involves small groups of travelers who interact more intimately with the environment and local cultures. Abstract. Many ideas are government / scientific community led. However, suggestions rarely consider improving and preparing Homo sapiens on a more individual level. As in the past, humans have the capacity to live in all types of natural environments and have shown amazing capabilities to survive in extreme conditions. Natural disasters even throughout the 20th century have clearly highlighted not only our vulnerability to disasters, but the lack of planning, support and recovery from them on behalf of national and global organisations. Both hard and soft adventure can be important. 7, pp. Testing the adventure model: empirical support for a model of risk recreation, The Future We Choose: Surviving the Climate Crisis, The next mega disasters that could happen at any moment (and kill us all), The bunker builders preparing for doomsday, The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference, The world in 2076: thousands of people have settled on Mars, The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenario, 10 ways the world is most likely to end, explained by scientists, The Age of Extremes: The Short Twentieth Century, 1914-1991, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Explorer Travellers and Adventure Tourism, Knowing Our Future: The Startling Case for Futurology, Tourism marketing in an era of paradigm shift, Scenario Planning: The Link between Future and Strategy, The risk management paradox for urban recreation and park manager: providing high risk recreation within a risk management context, Will humans go extinct? Garrett, B. Nikolova, regional director for Europe and Central Asia at the Adventure Travel Trade Association (ATTA), recently told a virtual audience that the COVID-19 crisis could become an opportunity for investing in new visitor expectations, which will see more people keen to be outdoor and active. 1, pp. A report by a United Nations panel of scientists suggests that we only have 12 years to keep global warming to moderate levels (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2020). In order to do this, the research takes a scenario narrative approach in its method of presenting future ideas. The International Ecotourism Society (TIES) defines ecotourism as "responsible travel to natural areas that conserves the environment and improves the well-being of local people." According to TIES, ecotourism can be divided into three categories: What happens if a deadly event pushes us to the edge? As noted by Lee (2012, p. 2), foresight, could be societies most effective tool for understanding our evolution and ultimately should be applied as a method for long-term survival and mastery of our environment. 124-136. Chouhan, N., Vig, H. and Deshmukh, R. (2019), Adventure Tourism Market: Opportunities and Forecasts, 2019-2026, Allied Market Research, available at: https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/adventure-tourism-market (accessed 16 January 2021). There is no guarantee of how society might develop and how Homo sapiens will evolve in the next 50+ years. Sandberg, A. and Bostrom, N. (2008), Global Catastrophic Risks Survey, Technical Report 2008-1, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University, pp. You'd be surprised how capable you feel after summiting a mountain! Lindgren, M. and Bandhold, H. (2009), Scenario Planning: The Link between Future and Strategy, Palgrave Macmillan, New York. Purpose This paper aims to demonstrate the importance of adventure tourism in tourism the tourism industry and in tourism research. Cresswell, K., Cunningham-Burley, S. and Sheikh, A. (1978), The ideologies of futurists, in Fowles, J. Pidgeon et al. Maybe a different life form will present us with new opportunities. For the first time since the dinosaurs (65 million years ago) humanity is facing a global mass extinction of wildlife due to our misuse of natural resources. Before delving further into aspects of safety management, and in particular, implications for the future of the commercial adventure tourism industry arising from the COVID-19 pandemic, the chapter makes a short digression to the history of . Consequently, narrative writing is recognised as an effective method of presenting future ideas, especially when they coincide with written stories that are engaging and informative (Lindgren and Bandhold, 2009). This paper offers original theoretical knowledge within the adventure tourism literature. 1. Travelling also offers the opportunity to seek out the last remaining medical provisions. Poundstone (2019a) points out that technological optimists tell us that we have a long, populous future and that society is still evolving, with a glorious destiny in front of us. 1, pp. Weber, K. (2001), Outdoor adventure tourism: a review of research approaches, Annals of Tourism Research, Vol. As the last survivors of the human race, they once again became nomadic, travelling by land and boat, wandering the Earth in search of the most suitable living conditions and to develop greater understanding of how the world has changed. In this case, the past centres on our continued basic primitive human instincts, instincts and skills that have been around for thousands of years and arguably will be for many more. Poundstone, W. (2019a), Doomsday math says humanity may have just 760 Years left, available at: https://www.wsj.com/articles/doomsday-math-says-humanity-may-have-just-760-years-left-11561655839 (accessed 13 January 2021). Cultural evolution is not only seen to be faster than genetic evolution, but different, as natural selection has seen us become an animal that is not limited to our environment, but an animal with the capacity to (re)shape it, to meet our needs and demands (at any given time). (2003), An updats scenario typology, Futures, Vol. It was also identified that the industry was already seeing positive signs of growth and the recent COVID-19 pandemic could lead to more people wanting to reconnect with nature and consequently adventure based activities. 19 No. Ewert, A. and Hollenhorst, S. (1989), Testing the adventure model: empirical support for a model of risk recreation, Journal of Leisure Research, Vol. Such a scenario is explored by Figueres and Rivett-Carnacby (2020). Especially if individuals want to be better placed to sustain themselves in the event that either scenario presented here became a reality, or something similar. If not, adventure tourism should be seen as a beacon of hope, offering tourists (individuals) new outdoor experiences that can enhance their survival skills, giving Homo sapiens every chance of continued existence. Other disasters could include asteroid collisions, global pandemics and plagues, biological and chemical warfare, nuclear war and disasters, solar geoengineering, artificial intelligence and potentially unknown risks that we are unaware of today (Higgins, 2018). Maybe society needs more influencers and stories that are driven to promote the explorer traveller's philosophy. The Adventure Travel Trade Association defines it as a tourist activity that includes physical activity, cultural exchange, or activities in nature . However, living outdoors, moving across lands and surviving off the natural world are deep-rooted in our Homo sapiens instincts. Likewise, humanity is promised that something will come to our savour, technology, evolved human beings, extra-terrestrial beings, a deity, or your government, all coming to our savour and dragging us through the challenging times ahead. However, travellers could look to expand their world view, pursue new and unique challenges, spend more time in nature and feel better mentally and physically (Ross, 2020). Thus, any event that forced us to change would have different levels of significance and impacts for different people across the globe (some would be better prepared and others less). Every now and then meeting new communities, and the more desperate (i.e. Consequently, Homo sapiens had to leave their small communities and progressively operate more like hunter-gathers. The Anthropocene age has not been adopted, but it does offer an insight into where we currently stand as a species. Evidently, there are some limitations to the research method. Whilst soft activities are perceived as less dangerous and risky and often can be carried out individually, as a lower skill set is required or in some circumstances are practiced with a professional guide. As noted by Rasmusen (2005) scenario narratives are only as good as the underlying idea that is being conveyed. Mannermaa (1991) suggests that the identification of tipping points is fundamental to the evolutionary paradigm from futures studies. If a doomsday scenario became a reality, humans across the globe would be impacted differently (due to the level of living and working infrastructure that currently exists and our reliance on facilities and services to maintain us for food, water and health). The industrial world is established on communities, based on trust and support. Our community is made up of ~30,000 individual guides, tour operators, lodges, travel advisors, tourism boards, destination marketing and management organizations, outdoor educators, gear companies and travel media who share a belief and commitment to sustainable . Adventure travel is a leisure activity that takes place in an unusual, exotic, remote or wilderness destination. Gladwell, M. (2002), The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference, Back Bay Books, Boston, M.A. Importantly, the message coming out of the scenario should be compelling to the people who will read it and take away the important message on offer (and in some circumstances implement necessary changes). If either scenario (one or two) presented above, or something similar was to transpire, this paper stresses that humans would require similar skills demonstrated by our ancestors to be best equipped to survive. Thus, the parallels with outdoors tourism activities can be seen in the lives of our earliest of ancestors. Over the course of the next 700+ years, ocean acidification, deforestation (and wildfires), rising sea temperatures and levels, would lead to gradual but ultimately deadly consequences to Homo sapiens. For all the existential threats, we'll likely be here for a very long time, available at: https://theconversation.com/will-humans-go-extinct-for-all-the-existential-threats-well-likely-be-here-for-a-very-long-time-135327 (accessed 13 January 2021). 28 No. The paper suggests that over the course of time (short or long-term), if society is propelled into environmental destruction, then a few hundred thousand Homo sapiens scattered around the globe are likely to travel for similar means and purposes to our hunter-gather ancestors. But that does not mean society cannot prepare future generations. 46 No. The outdoors can make you smarter. Thus, this paper, through the exploration of current trends, presents future views. Similar to a point echoed by Poundstone (2019b) who also recognises how future technology might change the human condition, as we become a genetically or digitally enhanced race. Hopefully, Homo sapiens will navigate into a peaceful and prosperous future, in harmony with each other and Mother Nature. In Africa, commercial bungee jumping takes place in Uganda, Zambia and South Africa. As noted, travel and tourism has evolved today into a market that accommodates a vast range of desires and motivations. As resources are limited and the lands lawless, a combination of survival of the fittest and those who have the best tools for fighting (remaining weapons and those who have skills to make what they can off the land) quickly establish their dominance (when any such encounters occur). Even so, humans would likely survive, scavenging society's remains, Mad Max-style, perhaps reverting to subsistence farming, even becoming hunter-gatherers. The following will now present two future scenarios where humans would require the skills of our ancestral past, due to changes in our living conditions. 1-14. Of course, alternative views and future foresights could be presented. Would our evolutionary instincts, survival of the fittest, therefore, take over and ask yourself, what survival skills do you have? 153-157. https://doi.org/10.1108/TR-06-2019-0211, Copyright 2019, Emerald Publishing Limited, Visit emeraldpublishing.com/platformupdate to discover the latest news and updates, Answers to the most commonly asked questions here. Likewise, Ewert and Hollenhorst (1989), in defining adventure tourism, suggested that a certain degree of danger and risk combined with a search of competence are a key ingredient, as it aims to provide tourists with a true sense of adventure. Whilst some humans could still live in some form of isolated safety, many will be cast to the winds, once again gathering and living in small tribes, squatted down, living and surviving on whatever patch of land will sustain them. Elon Musk aims to establish human settlements on Mars within the next decade (Grossman, 2016). Hard adventure travel activities are often riskier and more dangerous and take place in some extreme natural environments, requiring a high level of skill set. 44-54. Sport and Adventure Tourism. Higgins, A. For many this can be the initial obstacle to getting involved, but with more promotion and awareness people could start to harness their inner hunter-gather proficiencies. Humans do not take generations to change their genes; humans use intelligence, culture and manmade tools to adapt their behaviour in years, even minutes. 1529 Abstract Purpose This paper aims to demonstrate the importance of adventure tourism in tourism the tourism industry and in tourism research. However, due to our current industrial globalised communities, many of us are no longer capable to fend for ourselves (our social systems provide us with all our needs and requirements). As noted above, in this case, the solutions for non-natural evolution did not come to our saviour. The paper draws on empirical data from an ethnographic study of five different multi-day trips in Norway, each of which used skiing, hiking, or biking as the mode of travel. Projections considering the effects of climate change vary depending on how much the Earth warms, which is usually modelled on an increase of 13 degree Celsius. If any of these are to be successful, remains an unknown entity and only time will tell. Ideally, the doomsday predictions and the warning signs (including ideas presented here) should be enough for society to start considering how to improve our ourselves, the health of our natural habitats and ecosystems, striving to avoid such potentially devastating events. 2, pp. There should be no surprise in the urge for people to want to engage with outdoor activities. However, the niche tourism market continues to limit itself due to the potential risks involved, including the impacts of unpredictable weather conditions (Chouhan et al., 2019).
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